The August 3 municipal elections has been tagged a very crucial period in the history of South Africa.
A period when many wish for a huge political turn around in favour of the nation’s future.
Nomura research analyst, Peter Attard Montalto says the elections will not only mark the beginning of war between ANC factions, it will create a good atmosphere for attempt to oust President Jacob Zuma.
Montalto who believes that the coming election will not work in the favor of the ruling ANC says after the election, the party will be forced to war and introspection and from there, address the daring issues affecting the party.
“(The election) will lead to a period of introspection within the ANC and, from there, provide an accurate picture of the balance of power within the organisation,” Montalto stated in a note published on Tuesday.
According to him, the ANC might likely be unable to remain intact after the elections as critics of the party and the Zuma-led government will have a strong hold to pursue their aim of unseating the president (though likely unsuccessful).
To him also, Nomura expects only a moderate loss of national support for the ANC, falling to around 56.5%, almost all from urban areas. He said at least one new key metro would fall from ANC majority control, though Johannesburg looks somewhat safe for the party.
He however warned that any coalitions that may come from the aftermath of the elections “may be messy and unstable”, and will not meaningfully damage President Zuma. He added that Zuma will not be forced out but will be eventually allowed to exit on his own terms in 2018.
“Local elections are normally uninteresting and held every five years; with the odd, small municipality somewhere investors probably have never visited changing hands,” Attard Montalto noted.
“This time is very different. Major metropolitan areas that investors know well are in close contention. Equally, the result will directly affect the ANC’s internal power dynamics between the tenderpreneur and anti-tenderpreneur factions and the succession struggle that is also occurring within the organisation.”
Further more, Nomura noted that the 2016 local elections will weaken the President especially as his “corrupt dealings, and ‘tenderpreneurship’ has been widely exposed after Nkandla and its Constitutional Court case, and after the alleged state capture by the Gupta family became much more widely known.
It also noted that the elections will put the country’s economy in another stress as investors will remain skeptical about their dealings in the country. However, Montalto said the impact the Zuma scandals will have on the election results are still overestimated by both the public and foreign investors.
“We think, in general, investors are overestimating the electoral hit the ANC will have from Nkandla, Nene-gate etc on support levels.”
“We think investors need to watch the share of the national vote for the ANC and also the key municipalities and how they may fall into the opposition’s hands,” he said.
“We are expecting a likely moderate acceleration of a trend decrease in support, with ANC voters particularly staying away and opposition party supporters gaining share – as opposed to mass abandonment of the ANC for opposition parties which would see a much bigger vote shift.”
ANC’s Imposition of Candidateswill Cause More Killings
Related to this, a KwaZulu-Natal political analyst Protas Madlala has warned that the killings in KZN will persist if the ruling party continues to impose candidates on the people.
The analyst who was speaking following the gunning down of two ANC candidates on Monday, blamed the party for The ANC always putting “useless candidates”,against the peoples wish especially as politicians had become greedy and self centered.
The latest killings bring the total number of ANC member deaths to 12 – four in Pietermaritzburg, two in Newcastle and the rest from other parts of the province.