ANC Thinks They Might Lose The Next Election – Here’s Why


South Africa’s ruling party ANC in its NGC 2015 Discussion Document admitted that the party has grown infamous over the years, and has increasingly lost some of its supporters to opposition parties particularly the EFF and the DA who now “believe they have drawn blood and can inflict further blows to undermine the ANC”. As found in the document, the ANC believes that the sentiment for social transformation in South Africa is strong as always, but that some South Africans no longer consider the ANC as the representative of the much desired change, and that there are explicit and obvious impatience with the pace of change in the country among some African Professionals, the poorest in society, and the youths.

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Based on electoral trends, it was showcased that contrary to the over 60 percent overwhelming support that ANC enjoys from voters, the party has in the last two national elections shed support “coming down from 69.7% in 2004, to 65.9% in 2009 and 62.2% in 2014.” Whereas opposition parties like the DA has been gaining support, and other parties that broke away from ANC are receiving significant support.

In a nutshell, ACN presented the reasons below as the factors that can dethrone them as the ruling party regardless of their posture as “the only primary force capable of driving the project of social transformation.”

  1. South Africans are dissatisfied with ANC because of issues like corruption and Gauteng’s eTolls in electoral decisions, thus, are increasingly giving other parties their supports;
  2. The multi-class White support for the DA has remained solid and a section of the Black middle strata, Coloureds and Indians now see the DA as the party that represents their interests. According to ANC, “more and more voters from the Colored and Indian communities have been drifting to the DA;”
  3. The ANC has shed “support among the lower and upper middle strata among Africans as well as the poorest of the poor” in the metros;
  4. ANC’s support in these areas is estimated to have declined by 10.3 percent whereas the EFF gained 11.4 percent support increase and the DA increasing by 6.5 percent;
  5. There is little suggestion of ethnic and regional allegiances as KwaZulu-Natal, which historically reflected significant support for ethnic-based parties, has now attained national averages with the three largest parties;
  6. “The ANC’s leadership status and role are under threat…especially with regard to such issues as state capacity and effectiveness, ethical conduct, dignity and gravitas, the ANC is losing the moral high-ground. It also faces the danger, in the context of current provocations, of being goaded into precipitate action.”

From the foregoing, the document called for the party to among other things, firmly deal with public officials, leaders and members who face damaging allegations of improper conduct, and take care of factionalism and ‘money politics’ identified as a critical weakness sapping the revolutionary core values of ANC.

It further states that the ANC needs to embark seriously and systematically on organisational renewal in order to maintain and strengthen its status and to stop other political forces that seeks to exploit its weaknesses to dislodge the party having sensed the shift in the popularity and confidence in the ANC and the government.

This, According To ANC is Why They Might Cease Being The Ruling  Party.

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